Maginal Risk of flash flooding forecast for four out of next five days

Although Allegany County missed much of last weekend’s storms which resulted in flooding in the Canandaigua area and Oswego County, a Marginal Risk is with this area for the next four out of five days.

The National Weather Service (NWS) at Buffalo is forecasting a slow moving cold front generating scattered showers and thunderstorms today, primarily across the Southern Tier of New York and Northern Pennsylvania, with up to a 50 percent chance of rain around noontime hours in Central Allegany County.

Slow moving storms resulted in a dumping of some 5.5 inches in the Canandaigua area over the weekend, nearly four of them in 45-minutes, flooding much of the city and some surrounding area, with more than four inches in a 24-hour period in parts of Oswego County, according to reports, resulting in Gov. Kathy Hochul declaring States of Emergency for each.

A similar declaration also was issued in the Hudson Valley, with some eight-to-nine inches falling in the West Point area, washing out rail lines and resulting in one death.

A similar slow-moving occurrence hit the Bolivar area the week before, resulting in flooding.

Risk increases Thursday
The risk for excessive precipitation in Central Allegany County increases to 70 percent by late Thursday afternoon, according to forecasters, with the NWS Weather Prediction Center currently showing no risk Friday before it returns for Saturday and Sunday.

The NWS at Buffalo summarizes the pattern for the next two days as:

“Showers and thunderstorms today and tonight could produce locally heavy rain with isolated amounts exceeding one inch in an hours time.

“Showers and thunderstorms Thursday and Thursday night will carry the risk of generating locally heavy rain and also strong to damaging straight line wind gusts. Basin average rainfall will average a half inch, but localized amounts of one to two inches will be possible.”

Be Aware. Be Prepared. Stay Safe.TM and continue to monitor for updates. Turn Around Don’t Drown, as has occurred in other locations, with as little as six inches of rapidly moving water being able to knock an individual off their feet and a 12 inches carrying away a small car.

Consider posting photos or video of any significant flooding to our Facebook page or sending it to us at by, first, BEING SAFE when doing so, and including your name, location and direction of images, and any other pertinent information.

Additional details on the weather for the next seven days, including updating Doppler radar images as they relate to storms, are available through links on our exclusive Weather Resources page on our Allegany Hope Community News, Resources and Calendar website at or

Due to Allegany County’s location, Allegany Hope Weather Resources provides forecasts and other information from National Weather Services offices at Buffalo, for Allegany County west, Binghamton for Steuben County east, and State College, Pa., for Potter and McKean counties in Pennsylvania, along with regional and national data.

Additional preparedness
Allegany Hope is a Weather-Ready Nation AmbassadorTM and provides both adverse weather and other emergency preparedness and weather education information on this website and on our group Allegany Hope WNY Community News Facebook page at

“Like” and “Share” this website and that page, along with applicable posts, with family members and friends to help keep them informed about what is happening in Allegany County and beyond.

Emergency alerts reporting should not be considered a substitute for immediate weather alert radio or portable instant warning devices.

As always, we are seeking volunteers who have an interest in weather and other types of disaster preparedness to expand our coverage and community education. For further information, contact us at or (585) 664-9989.